Why Success Can Set You Up For Failure
“Facebook executives say the people who are complaining are a marginal minority. With time, Facebook says, users will accept Beacon, which Facebook views as an extension of the type of book and movie recommendations that members routinely volunteer on their profile pages.”
Why do they think they can get away with that? Because they were able to before. In September 2006, they came out with another horrible idea that was widely criticized: The Facebook Feed. And instead of getting rid of it, or changing course, they semi-apologized and then kept up with it. In the same sentence Zuckerberg claimed to care about the users’ feels and then defended the thing they hated:
…I want to thank all of you who have written in and created groups and protested. Even though I wish I hadn’t made so many of you angry, I am glad we got to hear you. And I am also glad that News Feed highlighted all these groups so people could find them and share their opinions with each other as well.
That is, “I know your mad but we’re staying the course.” And Facebook pretty much got away with it. I know I’ve grown to tolerate the mindless streams of activity coming from my friends–it’s even alerted me of some things I would have missed out on. But it was the worst possible thing that could have happened to Zuckerberg because it lead him to overreach. This is the essence of Boyd’s Loop. Success now leads to failure to tomorrow because it provides borrowed time. It detaches you from reality.
“Whatever success you are now experiencing will actually work to your detriment because you will not be made aware of how slowly you are falling behind in the fast transient cycle. You think you are doing just fine. You are not compelled to adapt until it is too late. These are ruthless times.”
Unfortunately, Facebook’s success was based on something that cannot last: Compulsion. “Why would I quit over the Feed? It’s not that annoying and if I left, I’d lose all my data.” But that’s not how it was received by the perpetrator, they heard that they can do whatever they want and after the controversy settles, all is well. And as we see now with the backlash growing, it shows how dangerous getting exactly what you want can be.
Edit: Valleywag, as usual, totally misses the point: “Traffic has more value, at the moment, than user satisfaction.” Umair, does not.
Apropos of nothing: I finally just went and set the OODA loop graphic as my desktop background. If I’m gonna understand that thing, I’m gonna have to memorize it.
Didn’t you go to college? People love the Newsfeed. Regardless of those petitions in the beginning, people saying it was too stalkerish, college kids love it. It makes it easier to stalk all of your friends at once. Exactly what Facebook provides. Would people be happy if they were to take it down now? No, most users have grown to love it.
I’m not saying the new situation is going to succeed, but they certainly were right last time.
Your comments are wrong with an impressive consistency. The idea that the users could be expected to “grow to love” something is the ESSENCE of the post and the entire problem. That success “They might not like it now, but eventually they will” and the fulfillment of the prophecy is what set Facebook up for what all the experts agree is a massive overreach. THAT is why success can lead to failure.
I realize it is the ESSENCE of the post, which is why I am posting to disagree with it. I am not commenting on the implications the whole Beacon thing will have, John Boyd’s or Robert Greene’s teachings.
Although in most cases I don’t really think users “grow to love” something, I believe was certainly the case with the News Feed. I’m not “one of the experts”, but I see people using and enjoying their News Feed everyday, who like most of us had our doubts in the beginning.
I think most people would admit that the feed is a lot better than some of the initial rabble would have supposed. Which is fine, I actually do like it. But the problem is success often leads you to believe that the strategy that got you there will continue to be successful.
Corkhead, you must be living in an alternate universe. Facebook users don’t love the news feed, the majority don’t even like it. To all the college students I know, it seems like a test to see if Zuckerberg’s pretentious and arrogant attitude will actually turn away users. Because the feed is actually a relatively minor part of facebook (and it is customizable, basically to the point of eliminating it), nobody was turned away and people like you assume that people like it. It comes down to my attitude: Do I use it? yes. Would I prefer that it never existed? absolutely.
To assume that something major like Beacon, which gives promotions and recommendations (sometimes even without the user’s permission) will go unnoticed until everyone accepts it is ludicrous and naive. Like Ryan said, Beacon is such a much larger component than the news feed, and therefore the result will be drastically different.
I’d like to see if anyone says Facebook is still worth $15B if/when Beacon doesn’t do as well as predicted.