My Autumn with the Moguls
When this goes down as the age that redefines all other ages, the era where titans exchanged ideas openly and you could rub shoulders and strategize with the next generation of leaders and geniuses posted and mused for free, I want to say: I was there. I contributed. I breathed it. I lived it. And if it costs me some money. So? It could just as easily make me a millionaire many times over. A new renaissance. Utterly paradigm shifting stuff happens everyday. And I get to sit there on the phone and translate it. And adapt. And poise to capitalize. You can’t learn this stuff in a classroom except for after it happens.
For the first time in history the cost of information is approaching zero. Almost every American industry is built on the understanding that information must be limited, controlled and restricted. Because when you make knowledge scarce, you can sell bits and pieces of it for enormous amounts of money. You create industries filled with “experts” and “consultants” and “specialists” who know only a tiny bit more than your average person. And most importantly, you can get away with not being all that good. What the internet has done is not free up a bit of information here or there, but ALL information. And thus we see the simultaneous teetering of dozens of major power players. It’s a lot harder to sell shitty cars or shitty music or charge the shitty 6% in broker’s fees when people can peek behind the curtain. You can do the majority of what they do yourself, and your experiences are no longer isolated to your small clan–you have access to the collective experiences of everyone.
Take the YouTube announcement. No question, it will profoundly changed our world. The Radiohead thing is a stunt. It’s mostly meaningless. The price at which bands sell their music is just a tactic, but how content is consumed, distributed and monetized, that is the grand, grand strategy of it all. In doing what they did–the details will surface but I can’t discuss all of it because it’s for a client–YouTube has altered the basic junction between content and consumer. It will make hundreds of middleman (who had positioned themselves as creators instead of facilitators) obsolete. And they will never come back. Why is that important? Because many of you are training to be those people.
You will be utterly fucked. Outsourcing is not the problem. It is that millions of jobs no longer need to exist. What is more of a threat to bank tellers? Cheap Chinese labor or the ATM? When industries accept mediocrity in service, of course there is going to be a lot of dead-weight and extra positions. So now they’re having to go lean just to staunch the bleeding–and it’s never going to stop. My whole generation is being taught by people who were shown that limited information worked and then are being sent into a world that is drastically different. They aren’t training young people to wade through bullshit, to grasp intuitively what makes sense and what doesn’t, or how to treat people well, or how to create stuff that actually appeals to people instead they’re teaching them the same stuff that got us here. So we’re going to have to learn it on our own, or fail once more.
Ryan,
As ever a thought provoking post.
For most things it’s true to say that the cost of information is approaching zero and that MOST information is available online. But there are areas where, even if technically the information is available, the consumer will pay a premium for someone to interpret and apply it for them.
In my profession (law) my clients could find most, but not all, of the information online but it is in such an indigestible form that very few will attempt to apply it to their problems.
What people will pay for in the future is likely to be the effective application of freely available information. And that’s where the money will be in the service sector I think.
Andrew
The “YouTube” announcement profoundly changed our world?
Who are you kidding? Small potatoes.
By the way, your typekey login is broken.
Despite our last previous none-too-pleasant conversation, I’d still like to put both my thumbs way up as a comment when I do see a gem of a post.
Rock on, pure quality here.
Excellent post. Good to see you back on track.
My feeling is that there will be a real tipping point when the undergrad degree becomes obsolete. In four years time the world had moved on. Time to adapt. Until then, your jobs are safe.
Jordon,
This is precisely why ValleyWag sucks. None of you have any idea of what any of this stuff means. The third part of the YouTube/Adsense deal, which isn’t being publicized will completely alter the way video content is distributed and how creator’s connect with the audience. It’s not small potatoes at all–it just redefined the very aim in creating video.
I don’t know Andrew, it seems to me that law is pretty much the epitome of a sector that specializes in obfuscating and controlling information. And thus, as people begin to translate for free and widely distribute information, they will be one of the main industries getting fucked.
Law has no assets. It is completely based on the idea that your average person doesn’t have the time to wade through thick law books. But now, Google does it for me.
Ryon,
so please, enlighten me. What does it mean? What is this mythical third part that will change everything?
It’s possible that you see something that I don’t, but at this point, I think you’re full of shit.
Don’t you think that if I was allowed to, I would have already? I will say this: If you can’t see how the decentralization of video from the last centralized source (YouTube) is important, you probably shouldn’t be reporting on technology.
The same mantra has been around since the early days of the internet, even pre-Web. Please don’t confuse cost and price. While it may be true that the price of some content and information is approaching zero, it is not true to say that the cost of that content or information is approaching zero.
You’re assuming the vast majority of the masses care to scrounge the Internet for solutions. No matter what, people will always be looking for a place to spend their money and as long as marketers promulgate the “thing that YOU need” by offering some service, someone will be willing to pay. Shit, even pet psychics make a killing in this world. Back on the subject, if I was some 13 year old girl and I have $15 in my pocket and I see the scrawny body of some young hot pop star adorning the local CD store, I will buy that record – because it’s the Thing to Do. Never forget the advertisers’ very powerful ability to drive consumer wants. (read Galbraith) Yes the music industry has taken a hit but A: They are reeling but far from fallen before this “new regime” you speak of and B: You can hardly apply a single medium towards all aspects of capital…that’s far too much generalization.
I’m not making that mistake at all. I understand that things as they are now could in no way replace what we used to have. But just because it doesn’t exist today, doesn’t mean it won’t tomorrow.
However, a lot of marketing relies on what we think other people are doing as opposed to what other people actually ARE doing. The internet changes that. We can actually see who is watching what, what is popular what isn’t. From that I think we will start to see a rise in information cascades, people having to follow crowds to make sense of the mass on information presented to them. Marketers used to serve that purpose, but they are obsolete.
I honestly don’t know what your point is then. One could argue that the Internet provides a clear window to the world that was once monopolized by the industry, but the simple answer to that is “so what?” People always follow the crowds but the crowds don’t follow content – they follow whatever the people in power dangle before them. You might as well be a Cousteau diving deep below the ocean ; you can watch the big fish devour the little thanks to your brand new technology, but you can’t really change the ecosystem. I have no doubt that information continues to become accessible and integrated with our everyday lives, but the idea that it puts the middleman out of work doesn’t seem to be a logical conclusion to that. If anything, the less substance and direct trade there is, the more there will be a need for middlemen to juggle all the ethereal transactions. Perhaps some people will lose their jobs by single incidents like the Madonna one, but those same jobs will be scooped up by other people, with new titles.
Please note that I am not suggesting you are powerless to do anything. There is always room for fresh talent and creativity and some of your stuff is thought provoking. Nonetheless, the attitude that we are at the tide of a great new era is a hyperbole. Change is gradual, if anything, and when the people in power have the billions of dollars to control the media, they will not have to be as flexible as you hint they do.
If anything, please remember that the cost of information has ALWAYS been zero. It’s easier to find now, but people still play with their pornography and facebook and 99% of them simply want to fulfill their needs, get a paycheck, and continue their happy little lives.
Are you really saying that information today is the same price (transaction costs + opportunity costs + price + etc) is the same as it was when Lincoln was president? Or during the second World War? Or before the internet? That is ridiculous.
And have you ever thought, that maybe, just maybe, people will consume what they LIKE if they were ever offered the chance?
Two issues with that:
1. I maintain that information has always been free. Knowledge is obtainable, just the means of obtaining it have changed. People who really wanted to learn could learn. They read. They listened. They kept an open mind. It’s true that these days any person can go to wikipedia and read about open heart surgery, but 100 years ago if you wanted to learn about medicine you sought out the local doctor. The result is the same, the means have changed…and that leads to:
2. The information that is available is not necessarily useful information. How much of the death of information out there can really be utilized by the average individual? Even more than that, how much of it is truly correct? We think we live in a scientific, rational world but there is still a great deal of estimation and guessing, even in the scientific field. I wouldn’t quite say that the diamonds in the rough have just been dumped by 10 tons of manure in the last five years, but there’s certainly a lot of bullshit that has been added.
People will consume what they like. People like McDonalds. Need I say more? I’m sure your intelligence is high but you have to think like the average person. The truly business minded know how to appeal to the masses with a big happy smiley face while secretly making off like a demon. Never think that the pure, righteous, “content-driven” provider will succeed. Content matters but it’s part of a package, and part of that package includes marketing.